China's housing prices in the end there is no bubble? Economist Xie Guozhong pointed out that the bubble is huge, and has entered the real estate market turning point; also have many economists pointed out that the bubble is not serious, will not enter the real turning point.
       In fact, for the price, the world has a common way of calculating the country, that is, the highest price is a person do not eat or drink ten years income can buy a house, if it is installment is their own daily costs in addition to 20 years You can pay off the loan; and the house to work from the bus is within half an hour to arrive. Then we can calculate the per capita income of each city and work distance, you know how the price of the house. Such as Beijing, the highest school district to reach 300,000 square meters. And school district housing so high prices, the income of the people who buy a house must be more than 3 million annual salary can buy, and since to buy school district, the annual salary is so high?
       Look at the statistics, such as the beginning of the statistics of Beijing housing prices, is the second ring side of the house prices, and later real estate quickly extended outward, immediately count the number to the ring ring until today, including Beijing suburbs of the average price. It seems that house prices rose is not high, but in fact ten years in the second ring of housing prices have risen more than ten times or more, and income can not be quiet to reach ten times the gains. This can be done to compare the price and income gap.
Look at Shanghai, ten years ago, the main real estate market is within the inner ring, house prices less than ten thousand, and now the price of the inner ring can hardly find the following. Also increased by more than ten times.
       See the real estate market, of course, also need to look at supply and demand, because the market has supply and demand. While the current vacant housing and inventory of nearly 100 million sets. What does that mean? Said it could solve the housing of 100 million families, and affordable housing this year will also develop millions of sets, is expected by the end of the vacant room and inventory will reach 100 million units.
        We look at the developers, many developers have to domestic development to foreign real estate market development, capital also will flow out.
        Look at the land market, the proportion of land flow is rising, indicating that the market demand is gradually reduced. There are many, many factors we can go to research, and related, we finally found that the real estate market is indeed to enter a turning point, that is, can not be in the big development, and may even fall into the cycle.
      The elevator market is currently dependent on the real estate market more than 80%, although there are old ladder replacement and renovation of the old building to install the elevator, but this is the market behavior, replace the elevator from fifteen years ago to install the statistics to statistics, according to China Elevator Network Of the information response, fifteen years of money in 2000, the national elevator only million units, and ten years ago, only more than forty thousand units. 2013 has reached 55 million units, which means that the elevator production and marketing on the real estate market dependence is very large. While the old ladder to replace the amount in the next five years, the highest annual no more than 50,000 units.
        Elevator manufacturing enterprises in China has been close to 700, while the actual production capacity is 75 million units of production. The remaining capacity in 2013 is 20 million units. So if the elevator production and sales in 2015 dropped to 50 million units or less, the domestic elevator market will be how?
We look at the history of the development of the elevator industry in the Chinese elevator market and business is the beginning of the construction of the fifties, into the early seventies, the country only 14 elevator industrial production license, the seventies elevator sales less than 1,000. Into the late nineties, elevator sales into the million annual output, and last year reached 55 million units.
       According to the author of the macro market and the real estate market and the elevator market analysis, the Chinese elevator industry will also enter a period of adjustment, and this adjustment period is not only the overall adjustment of the elevator production and sales, but will be some backward enterprises and small businesses have a major blow.
If the real estate market adjustment period comes, then the adjustment of the elevator industry will come. And we have no characteristics of the development of the brand effect is poor, the technical level behind the elevator business will have a fatal blow.
       In a family we need to consider how to live better in the future, and a business should see how to survive in the future. When the real estate market inflection point, if we elevator industry itself does not think, do not prepare, there is no response strategy, then we will not be able to develop, or even can not survive.
       Of course, it is also possible, but it is more important.
       China's elevator industry to the rapid development of today's world production and sales of the first, and we have no real can go beyond the international machine products, has always been behind in Europe and the United States to develop the elevator industry has not adapted to the future development. China must have the world's leading elevator technology, such as the fourth generation of machine-free elevator the same machine technology, we need to carry out thinking breakthrough, need to research and development, we need to work together.
       In the face of severe economic situation and the inflection point of the real estate market, you are ready to deal with it? Are your business ready to deal with it? Are our industry colleagues ready to deal with it?
Source: elevator industry information network
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